In the coming decades the improvement and choice of land vehicle powertrain will mainly be dictated by emissions conformance at best cost/ performance compromise, not independently performance, cost and fuel economy as in the past, explains IDTechEx' Chairman Dr Peter Harrop.
And as laws tighten and technology improves, upfront cost, cost of ownership and resale price issues are likely to favour pure electric vehicles over conventional ICE or hybrid solutions, Harrop expects. Pure electric is already the norm for most small land e-vehicles such as electric bicycles, mobility for the disabled, scooters, e-tuktuks, e-rickshaws and other micro EVs, such as "quadricycle" homologation in Europe, he notes in the report.
Taking indoor forklifts, electric airport ground support equipment (GSE), but also three-wheeled micro EVs as examples, IDTechEx' Chairman observes that many microcars are jumping directly from ICE to pure electric.
But the real findings of this report is the arrival of new powertrains including 48V mild hybrids (MH) (set to replace much conventional ICE and non-plug-in strong hybrid) and energy independent vehicles (EIV), the ultimate goal for an emission-free future.